South of the James

By Conaway Haskins

With the election just six weeks away, the Race to Richmond will probably go down to the wire. Kilgore is maintaining a slight lead in most publicly-available polls, but for some conservative pundits and politicos, it’s too close for comfort. To the casual observer, Kilgore’s inability to separate from Tim Kaine is unusual given his high degree of success in the 2001 race for Attorney General. Despite snagging 60% of the statewide vote last time around, voters in the Commonwealth are not yet fully sold on the gentleman from Scott County as their governor. Some Kilgore supporters have expressed worry about how the campaign is resonating throughout Virginia, particularly with the social conservative base.

In any election, being shades away from 50% in most major polls is generally a good sign. However, it appears that if Kilgore is to really wrap up this election with time to spare, the campaign needs to reemphasize a signature set of issues that resonate with voters. So far, Kilgore issue briefs have been published in areas such as education, transportation, economic development, but so far, a compelling case for why Kilgore is the right man to lead Virginia has not been made. As such, this is an opportune time for Kilgore to use the last month-and-a-half of the race to talk to Virginians about his policies and principles. If the end result is to be a new address for the Kilgore family in Richmond, his campaign must speak across Commonwealth’s political landscape and not merely engage in conventional partisan mudslinging.

Continuing to tag Kaine’s Richmond record as liberal and ineffective actually rings hollow given the fuzziness of such labels in contemporary Virginia politics and the inaccuracies of the statistics cited in Kilgore media spots. Potts’ smorgasbord of tax increases, increased government programs, and favorable stances toward gay adoption have effectively positioned him as the liberal candidate. With Gov. Warner increasing his appearance on Kaine’s behalf, Kaine can legitimately assert himself as the centrist candidate for undecided independents, conservative Democrats, and moderate Republicans who will be the swing voters this year. In the absence of a defining issue along the lines of Gilmore’s “No Car Tax,” Kilgore must unequivocally tells Virginians, particularly undecided independent swing voters, what he stands for, not simply what and whom he stands against. This election is his to lose, and with the public polls showing him with just a slight advantage over Kaine, this just might happen.

From the vantage point South Of The James, an independent voice with no ties to any candidate or party, three key issues appear to give Kilgore his best shot at reaching out to independent swing voters who are on the fence. Those issues are taxes, education and crime.

Is It Time to Read Kilgore’s Lips?
On taxes, Kilgore has not been clear on where he stands on the Warner tax increases much to the dismay of some supporters. What people want to know is whether he is for keeping them or repealing them and either way, the motivations behind his position. Unlike Russert’s propositions, the Warner tax increases are not a hypothetical – they actually happened. As Attorney General, Kilgore stated opposition to them, but they were passed by bipartisan majority consisting of 17 of his fellow Republicans. From this vantage point, the tax plan was Warner’s signature item, and with his astronomical (for Virginia at least) approval ratings, resisting this bygone legislation would be futile. Much to the dismay of conservatives, the electorate is not up in arms over the tax increase, and more voters seem to support them than oppose them. Thus, it would be wise for Kilgore to shift the paradigm and tell the voters that the tax increase is a thing of the past, and until the voters decide that they want something different, they will stay. Then Kilgore should offer up something that neither Potts nor Kaine can abide – a no new taxes pledge.

Even though Warner seemingly broke his pledge to not raise taxes, he managed to push through a historic increase that has produced a surplus for the state’s coffers. Despite the protestations of the conservative wing of the GOP and the punditry, the localities seem to favor the results of the Warner tax plan. An open secret in state government is that many localities in Southside and Southwestern Virginia – the heart of Kilgore country – would actually suffer from reductions in state revenues as they are heavily dependent on funds from the Commonwealth for their operations and programs. Conservative misgivings aside, Kilgore supporters, especially those in wealthier areas, would be wise to read the political calculus of those rural communities. Repealing the Warner taxes and pressing for additional cuts would leave places like Kilgore’s Scott County home in quite a bind due to reductions in vital state funds. Ultimately, such a move could hurt Republicans more than Democrats.

The alternative is for Kilgore to simply state that while he initially opposed Warner’s tax hikes; the surplus shows that Virginia’s economy is performing well. Given his preferences for referendums, he can say that until the voters express their overwhelming displeasure for continuing the Warner tax policy, his responsibility is to prudently manage the funds of the Commonwealth. This allows him to assure Virginians, especially rural Virginians, that money will not be taken away from vital programs, such as education, health and transportation, but that he will oppose any additional measures that take more money out of voters’ wallets. In all honestly, Kilgore has little to lose in making such a move since conventional wisdom holds that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats with their money.

Making Crime (Fighting) Pay
Since a major portion of Kilgore’s resume includes stints in law & order, this should be his bread and butter issue. Reducing crime and making streets safer unifies all Virginians. As US Attorney, he prosecuted criminals and helped keep communities safe. As Secretary of Public Safety, he was a key player in then-Gov. Allen’s parole reform efforts. As Attorney General, he worked to diligently to snuff out gangs and reduce domestic violence against women and children. Kilgore can honestly some claim credit for having seen statewide crime-reduction initiatives through to fruition. This is his record, and it is a strong one on which to stand. However, for some reason, successful crime-fighting is not part of the message that comes through clearly in his commercials.

Given his record, it is perplexing as to why the Kilgore anti-crime story is not told more often. With suburban communities such as Chesterfield witnessing the onset of bona fide organized gangs and with rural areas potentially victimized by crystal meth, Kilgore has the potential to share his real-world experiences in helping to protect Virginia lives and homes. He can talk directly to women about his dedicate to ridding them of the scourge of abuse. The crime issue is one where good politics and good policy intersect, and Kilgore should run with this.

Focusing on His 3 R’s
On education, Kilgore has a blueprint for a great campaign message with his own version of the 3 R’s of education – Recruit, Reward & Retain. Throughout Virginia, the education of young people is a top issue that voters want the candidates to speak on. Kilgore’s package of teacher incentives will help Virginia remain among the nation’s leaders in teacher qualification standards. Although South Of The James has taken issue with some of your claims regarding your role in the education reforms of the early 1990s, the fact remains that the policies enacted under then-Gov. Allen improved the performance of the state’s public schools so that an overwhelming majority now meet state and federal requirements. The Kilgore 3-R plan stakes out fertile ground that remains untilled by Kaine and Potts – helping boost the pipeline of trained, professional educators to work with and for our children, particularly in rural and urban areas.

A bit of creative politicking can help the Kilgore campaign sell the plan better. As a product of Virginia’s public education system, Kilgore knows first-hand the value of a good education. As talked about in several campaign spots, he also married a teacher. As Laura Bush demonstrates, having a teacher as a spouse can be a boon for a candidate running on an education reform platform. As opposed to the current crop of print and TV ads, the Kilgore campaign should tell Virginians exactly how much watching his wife work as a teacher informed his ideas about improving education in the Commonwealth. Kilgore can stress that he wants to make sure that good folks like his wife can experience rewarding, well-paid careers while serving the families and communities of the Commonwealth, particularly those in need.

In the final analysis, Virginia’s voters deserve greater insight as to what all of the candidates stand for, not just who and what they are against. As the leading vote-getter from 2001 and the apparent frontrunner in 2005, if Kilgore can offer up a compelling message to the voters, he should be the man to beat. From the perspective South Of The James, undecided and independent voters should expect more from all of the candidates for governor. If Kilgore, Kaine and Potts cannot come up with something better than what we have seen, regardless of which man is elected, the voters will lose.

by Conaway HaskinsIn the latest campaign ad battles between Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore, the boundaries of truth are sorely being tested. As is to be expected in big-time politics, the spin doctors are attempting to simultaneously promote their candidate as the right man for the job, while denigrating the other side to no end. The unfortunate side of this is that the mainstream media has not yet insisted on examining these claims to any significant degree, and thus, it is left to intrepid bloggers to shine a light on their numerical slight-of-hand tricks.

South Of The James has delved a little deeper into the facts and figures that the two candidates are using to buttress their commercial messages. Despite their political differences Kaine and Kilgore do share common ground on at least one issue – the extent to which they will go to shade their personal records and distort each others’ on jobs and education. In many instances, their claims are blatantly false, making them guilty of fudging the numbers. At worst, they are simply guilty of lying.

In terms of jobs, the Kilgore ad “Water” slams Kaine for a supposed unemployment rate increase of 47% during his tenure as mayor/council-member from 1994-2001. In the corner in fine print is a note that the source of this data is monthly labor force figures from the Virginia Employment Commission (that are actually compiled by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics) that are not seasonally adjusted. This is supposed to add the patina of credibility to the attack ad, and I’m sure that somewhere in the hills of Virginia, the Kilgore folks are repeating these figures over and over. However, it doesn’t take a graduate course in statistics (I hope) to see that the inherent problem with this figure – which renders it virtually meaningless – is that you cannot logically assess a 7-year labor economic cycle based on selective data from particular months. At best, you can only look at the average annual rate of unemployment during Kaine’s service in Richmond.

Therein lays the problem. During Kaine’s first year in office – 1994 – Richmond experienced an average annual unemployment rate of 5.8 percent. When Kaine left in 2001, the city’s jobless figure had dropped to 4.1%. During his last full year in office – 2000 – the rate averaged out to 2.6%. The 47% rate quoted in the Kilgore ad is plain fiction, and can only be derived through the most creative manipulation of the statistics, a level of exploitation that is only acceptable in the bizarre world of politics.

Kaine cannot be credited with a job well-done with respect to jobs just yet, as he tries to do in his “All Sides” commercial. Kaine claims to have created jobs while he was mayor. Aside from the definite leap in logic claiming that an individual council-member serving in a ceremonial position can single-handedly generate private sector employment, the contention simply is not true. Using those same labor force statistics, one would see that from 1994-2001, Richmond actually saw a decline in total employment of nearly 4,000 jobs and total unemployment of nearly 2,000 jobs. Granted, this helped produce a steadily declining jobless rate, but overall, during Kaine’s tenure, Richmond’s labor force shrunk.

When it comes to the supposed facts about education supplied to voters by the campaigns, the waters are even murkier. In that same “Water” commercial, Kilgore claims that Richmond schools next to last statewide in terms of school performance, and the fine print includes a source citation for the VA Dept. of Education’s Division of Assessment and Reporting. Conventional wisdom may support this contention, but the problem is that from 1994-2001 dramatic changes to the manner in which Virginia assessed its school districts took place, thus making a true comparison over Kaine’s term in office nearly impossible and somewhat illegitimate. Still, Kilgore should be aware of this being that he worked for the man who ushered in the era of higher K-12 standards, then-Gov. George Allen.

In terms of the statistics, Kilgore claims that, under the Kaine “administration,” Richmond’s school were overcrowded and high drop-out rates. Both contentions are noted as coming from VA Dept. of Education statistics, the annual Superintendent’s Report and the yearly Dropout Reports. However, in neither case does the Kilgore camp define what overcrowded means or what “drop-out rate” truly measures. Granted, it may seem like commonsense, but the devil is truly in the details. Since Mr. Kilgore does define overcrowded, but sites Table 2 of the Superintendents Report, South Of The James assumes that the statistics used refer to pupil-faculty ratio. To that end, this is what is explored further. According to the report:

Pupil/teacher ratios for grades K-6 and grade 1 may differ because of the option for reporting un-graded students either by grade level or as ungraded in the 2000 Fall Membership report. Pupil/teacher ratios for elementary and secondary may vary because of the reporting of teaching positions for middle school grades 6-8…licensed instructional personnel shall be assigned by each school board in a manner that produces division-wide ratios of students in average daily membership to full-time equivalent teaching positions, excluding special education teachers, principals, assistant principals, counselors, and librarians, that are not greater than the following ratios: 25 to 1 in grade KG; 24 to 1 in grade 1; 25 to 1 in grades 2-6; and 25 to 1 in English classes in grades 6-12

The report includes several data categories in which pupil: faculty ratios are compiled, all of which measure a different element of the “crowding” of Virginia’s schools. Additionally, the reports available on-line only go back to the 1996-97 school year. Thus, the first two years of Kaine’s service in Richmond is unaccounted for by this data. Since the Kilgore camp merely referred to Table 2, the most logical points of reference on that table appeared to be the pupil-faculty ratio for grades K-7 (elementary years) and grades 8-12 (secondary years).

From that vantage point, it appears that during the Tim Kaine era, Richmond schools fared well compared to the Commonwealth overall (a Virginia educational system that was overseen by consecutive Republican governors, mind you). Pupil-faculty ratios (the figure equals the number of students per faculty member) for Richmond and Virginia were:

Richmond, K-7/8-12 vs. Virginia, K-7/8-12:
1996-97 = 13.7/11.8 [14.2/12.2]

2000-01 = 16.8/7.8 [13.6/11.4] From the looks of things, on balance, Richmond schools were on balance on par with schools throughout the Commonwealth in terms of crowds. With respect to drop out rates, Kilgore’s attack on the city schools is somewhat rooted in reality, though strained. Under the reporting constraints of the VA Dept. of Education,

A dropout is an individual who: (1) Was enrolled in school at some time during the previous school year and was not enrolled on October 1 of the current school year, or (2) Was not enrolled on October 1 of the previous school year although expected to be in membership; and (3) Has not graduated from high school or completed a state- or district-approved educational program; and (4) Does not meet any of the following exclusionary conditions:(i) Transfer to another public school district, private school, or state- or district-approved education program; (ii) Temporary school- recognized absence due to suspension or illness; (iii) Death.

The fact is that Richmond City Schools showed steady improvements from 1996-2001, and in each year, the city’s school dropout rate fell closer to the state average. In that time, the schools went from among the bottom 3 or 4 systems to near the middle third of Virginia’s schools. The figures are:

Richmond rate vs. Virginia rate

2000-01 = 2.81%/2.46% It must be noted is that these statistics come with significant caveats as noted above. Furthermore, these statistics are subject to self-reporting by schools, and different reporting mechanisms account for different data conclusions. However, unlike commercials for tobacco products, alcohol or pharmaceuticals, you will not hear such disclaimers for politicians. On the other hand, these numbers raise questions about Kaine’s claim to have built the first new schools in the city in over a “generation.” From the data above, it seems that Richmond did not have a need for new school due to overcrowding, but possibly due to the age of facilities. At any rate, the school system announced earlier in the academic term that a number of schools would be consolidated.

Finally, Kilgore professes to have fought to keep lottery money exclusively for education and to have worked with Governor Allen to increase school funding by $2 billion from 1994 to 1998. Typically, the Secretary of Public Safety – Kilgore’s Allen administration position at the time – focuses on law enforcement and corrections. Unless he was doing something special, Kilgore’s job responsibilities had very little to do with funding education outside of that which is provided to state prisoners and public safety personnel. He did, however, oversee the successful implementation of various Allen parole reforms, which ironically may have helped Tim Kaine cut down on all that crime in Richmond!

As for the lottery, Kilgore may be fudging the truth a bit about seeing to it that the lottery proceeds were used exclusively for educational purposes. According to the Virginia Lottery:

Since 1999, all Virginia Lottery profits have been used for public education in the Commonwealth, for kindergarten through 12th grade. When Virginians voted in 1987 for a state-operated lottery, many made the assumption that they voted on how to spend the Lottery’s proceeds. This was not the case. The lottery proceeds, which are approximately one-third of lottery sales, were to be used as determined by the General Assembly. The use of the proceeds has changed over time. In 1989, lottery proceeds were dedicated to capital construction projects. From 1990 to 1998, the lottery proceeds were transferred to the state’s General Fund. Starting in 1999, a state budget amendment sent lottery proceeds to local public school divisions to be used solely for educational purposes. In the year 2000, more than 80% of Virginia voters said yes to the creation of the State Lottery Proceeds Fund. The measure, now a permanent part of Virginia’s Constitution, directs all Virginia Lottery profits be used solely for educational purposes.

Thus, Kilgore’s tenure in the Allen administration had ended before the education-only lottery proceeds policy took effect.

All of these outlandish ad claims continue to highlight the problem that both Kaine and Kilgore have in demonstrating records of experience on issues that matter to Virginians. Voters must truly consider how much credit or scorn is due to either man for those matters that were, in all honesty, outside of their official purview. So far the efforts of the two gentlemen to portray themselves in the best light possible while attacking the other are tantamount to the water boy claiming credit for his team’s championship victory. In the meantime, we can expect to see more of the same out of the campaigns, and as such, expect to see more of the same type of criticism from South Of The James.

– Conaway

By Conaway Haskins

I just want to take a moment to congratulate the residents of Blackstone, Farmville and other Southside Virginia communities for stepping up to the plate to assist the victims of Hurricane Katrina. As a native Southsider, I’m incredibly proud of y’all! I know that many people down in the southern Piedmont have been personally touched by the tragedy. My mother and sister spent the earlier part of this week trying to track down a family friend who moved back to the Gulf Coast a few years ago – fortunately he and his family made it through the storm and floods virtually unscathed. So, it comes as no surprise that the people of Southside are ready and willing to step up to the plate at take folks in.

This week, Richmond media organizations have run a number of articles this week that really demonstrate how the spirit of Southside has answered the calls of charity and public service. Locals often refer to their hometowns as “God’s Country,” and though it may not be as enticing as say, Houston (sorry, Mrs. Bush), I’m sure that the folks from New Orleans will appreciate the hands of fellowship and hospitality that I’m sure will be extended to them. For the people in Southside, in addition to opening your hearts, homes, and wallets, this is a great opportunity to showcase your hometowns to fellow Americans who need an escape from the madness of their wrecked lives.

As has been pointed out, the rural nature of Southside may be problematic for some folks being sheltered without transportation, but I would hope that the schools, churches, chartered bus companies and private citizens could step up and help the evacuees to get a taste of life in the region. In Blackstone, they can enjoy the calmness of Seay Park, and eat Mediterranean-American fare at Mitchell’s or great Chinese at The Pearl. Over in Kenbridge, there’s great Southern food at Captain’s Choice, and in Victoria, be sure to turn them onto the famous Timmy’s Hot Dogs. Don’t forget to take them over to Farmville for a bite at Charley’s Waterfront Cafe (right next to shallow Appomattox), and if they want seafood, head to the other side of town to Captain Seas. And, though I cannot attest to it, but my daddy tells me that the owners of Kahill’s in South Hill have opened up a nice new restaurant there.

Now that high school football season is in gear, why not take some of the Gulf Coasters to see Southside’s own version of Friday Night Lights, as VHSL Hall-of-Famer Chippie Chappell leads his small-school powerhouse Central-Lunenburg team against fellow Division 1&2 teams and against bigger schools of Divisions 3&4 like rival Nottoway. While, they may not compared to the beloved New Orleans Saints, Lawrenceville’s St. Paul’s College Tigers continue their inspirational return to full-fledged NCAA Division II football competition, and the Division III squad at Hampden-Sydney exemplifies the true spirit of collegiate sports (the festive game-time atmosphere doesn’t hurt, either).

While they may be facing difficult financial times ahead of them, I am certain that some of the evacuees would enjoy the window-shopping or seeing the latest visual art exhibits in Farmville. With the devastation of the flood waters that ripped through Mississippi and Louisiana, many people never want to see water again. But, for those are brave enough to face it, the region has plenty of lakes, rivers, and streams that run quietly through it. Given that the evacuees have been shifted from place to place, they would probably appreciate the region’s other opportunities for recreation.

At any rate, what Southside will provide the evacuees with is a peaceful, quiet environment full of down-home people. Having faced a steady diet of economic distress, population decline, and overall hard times since the late 1980’s, Southside is well acquainted with poverty and folks in need of help. Despite the concerns of state and local officials about how best to deal with the impoverished, the people who do not intend to return home to Mississippi, Louisiana or Alabama will bring with them their vibrant and unique slices of American culture. Those who stay in Southside potentially represent a much-needed source of diversified human and social capital. In recent years, the counties and town of Southside have been absorbing a growing number of Mexican immigrants, and they surely have the capacity to take in their fellow Southerners.

Governor Warner has made economic development in the region a priority, and so far he has had some success at attracting new businesses and industry to certain parts of the area. From now on, he can make a compelling case to any new businesses seeking relocation or new investment opportunities that the response of Southsiders to the Katrina crisis demonstrates just how hardworking and community-minded the people there can be. At any rate, the good folks of my home region can rest assured that, in the end, God will assuredly reward them in some manner for what they are doing. For what it’s worth, if there is anything that I can do to assist, as my mama always says, “If you need me, call me!”

– Conaway Haskins

by Conaway Haskins

Note: This article was republished with permission in the September 5, 2005 edition of the e-magazine Bacon’s Rebellion.

In the months leading up to Labor Day, the mainstream media and Virginia bloggosphere have examined the gubernatorial candidates’ efforts to attract Virginia’s Black voters from various perspectives. Many of the commentaries and analyses probed whether Jerry Kilgore’s overtures to African Americans were serious plays for the Democrats “base,” or whether the campaign was just going through the motions to appear progressive and look open-minded. The hubbub dovetailed nicely with RNC Chair Ken Mehlman’s apology and outreach tour. Add to this the fact that Doug Wilder, arguably the nation’s greatest Black politician (and definitely Virginia’s most entertaining), has now wrapped up his scheduled powwows with Kilgore, Potts, and Kaine, announcing that he’s holding off on an announcement until a later time. For what it’s worth, I’d like to offer yet another viewpoint on the possibilities surrounding Virginia’s Black voters – from my vantage point as a politically independent African American blogger.

I ask your forgiveness ahead of time for the dearth of links. Please feel free to fact check me and offer corrections.

As was noted before on other sites, the recent Survey USA poll taken in early August noted that, of likely Black voters, 17% were planning to vote for Kilgore, 3% were undecided, 72% were for Kaine, and Potts polled at 3%. Though legitimate issues have been raised about the reputation of the survey shop, the reliability of the data, and the representation of the sample, the results are still interesting to me. The Mason-Dixon poll set Kilgore’s take closer to 10%, but the numbers of Black undecided voters was significant. That Kilgore is polling as high as 17% among likely Black voters in any poll is an accomplishment.

Given recent political history, it should not be surprising that a Republican candidate is garnering African American support in Virginia. As Attorney General, Jim Gilmore’s leadership of the investigations into Black church-burning incidents in Virginia and the nation set him up well when he ran for Governor. With that base established, his car-tax plan played very well among Black voters, many of whom expected to benefit economically from such a policy change (now, we know the true result). When Doug Wilder refused to endorse Don Beyer and proclaimed both candidates to be good men, Gilmore walk away with a good chunk of Black votes on Election Day 1997.

In 2000, according to CNN, George Bush received 14% of Black Virginians’ votes, among the highest in the nation. Although his tally dipped to 12% in 2004, he still had a better showing among Black Virginians than most other states. Outside of his tough 1996 race against Mark Warner, John Warner has always enjoyed significant Black support, and as of late Senator Allen has been positioning himself better with African Americans, notably with his leadership of the Senate anti-lynching apology.

Heading into this November’s showdown, much of the media and blogger chatter has been about the tactics, rhetoric or endorsements that the candidate are employing to attract Black votes. Still, to me, there is one missing piece of the political puzzle – an answer to the question of why Black Virginians vote Republican more often than Blacks nationally. Admittedly, I don’t have all of the answers, and unfortunately there has never been a truly systematic study of Black voter behavior that has made it into popular Virginia political discussions. However, I have found a few bits of information from the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Kaiser Family Foundation that may shed a little light into this phenomenon.

Long story short, Black Virginians demonstrate a number of social and economic indicators that may make them more favorably disposed to support Republican and conservative candidates. From an economic perspective, African Americans in Virginia are relatively better off than their counterparts elsewhere. Compared to national numbers, Virginia’s Black community is marginally less impoverished (30% poverty rate vs. 33% US), and more likely to be employed (7.7% unemployment rate vs. 10.4% for Blacks nationally). From a social-family perspective, Blacks in Virginia have lower teenage birth rates, higher rates of prenatal care, and report lower incidents of mental health problems.

Intellectual honesty requires that I note that Black Virginias have higher than average AIDS infection rates, are more obese than Blacks elsewhere, and have the same levels of educational attainment. Still the comparatively positive employment and birth statistics may leave Black Virginians more favorably disposed to voting for the Republican message of lower taxes, business growth and family values. Additionally, significant numbers of Black Virginians live in rural counties and growing small cities, and in the Commonwealth’s metro areas, the Black population is becoming more suburban over time, especially in Hampton Roads, Metro Richmond and Northern Virginia. This potential integration into the larger, Whiter community increases the likelihood of people coming together for work, in the mall, at restaurants, and for soccer practice, creating opportunities for cross-pollination of ideas about politics, religion, culture and race itself. All of this translates into political variables that may slowly push Black Virginians away from traditional Democratic politics and toward Republicans.

Anecdotally, I’d also offer that the history of Virginia has left her Black residents leery of either party. We all know about the GOP Southern Strategy, but Virginia Democrats did not follow the DNC’s path of being Black-friendly until the late 1980’s. Black political will was frustrated by Byrd machine remnants until Chuck Robb’s ascension to the governorship, and Republicans such as Linwood Holton and John Dalton earned the respect of many Black voters in the 1960’s and 1970’s. At the same time, unlike our neighbors in Tennessee, Maryland and DC, Virginia does not have a history of power-brokering Black Democratic machines or familial dynasties with statewide reach. For the most part, the 100% Democratic Virginia Legislative Black Caucus does not have a leader with statewide name recognition, nor does Virginia’s lone Black congressman – Bobby Scott – have much of a following outside of his 3rd District communities. As such, Black politics in Virginia is much more localized and symbolic than about rallying huge voter and volunteer networks. Hence, in the absence of a notable political apparatus, Doug Wilder’s moves carry sway in the church pews, barbershops, beauty salons, and radio stations of Black Virginia.

Thus far, both Kaine and Kilgore have advertised with Black media and enlisted the requisite rostrum of Black supporters and endorsers. Though Kaine will undoubtedly win the Black vote by a large margin, if the Kilgore camp plays its cards right, the former AG could siphon off enough Black voters to damage Democratic hopes of retaining the Executive Mansion. Even Russ Potts has a shot at snatching a few Black voters, and according to sources in his campaign, he’d planned to make appearances with prominent Black sports figures he’s worked with, as well as, tout his relationships with his Black Senate colleagues.

Political preferences aside, in the final analysis, I think that the continued diversification of Black voter behavior in Virginia is a good thing for all of us, regardless of political persuasion. As former Virginia House of Delegates member and unsuccessful GOP Congressional candidate Winsome Sears rhetorically posed to me, “Why should we leave it up to the liberals to tell our story?” Hopefully, once the full story of Black Virginia Votes is put out there for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike, there will be no need for racial labels or gamesmanship to muddy the waters of Virginia politics.

– Conaway Haskins